Yesterday, the price of aluminum was weak and fluctuated.

The U.S. dollar index consolidated at a high level after breaking through a new high of 105.

Macro tightening expectations and supply-side increments suppressed the rebound in aluminum prices.

However, the stock of aluminum is low and remains the situation of destock, both of which provide a bottom support for aluminum.

On the macro side, recently, the US dollar index has continued to soar and is now standing at the 105 mark, which act as a brake on non-ferrous metals. 

US stocks have fallen, commodities have resonated downward, and the market atmosphere has been full of bears.

In terms of supply, the market risk aversion is still disturbed.

The supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum in June still exists, and the low inventory of aluminum ingots in China and abroad may form support.

After June, the supply side continued to resume production and release new production capacity plans, mainly in Yunnan, Gansu, Guangxi provinces and other places.

In terms of consumption, the market maintained the demand for goods, but the overall performance of market was poor.

The domestic aluminum downstream processing industry continued to grow from the previous month, and some downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing due to circulation problems.

On the whole, the recovery of downstream demand is insufficient, and it is recommended to choose profit-taking and wait-and-see.

In terms of price, the current production capacity growth of electrolytic aluminum has slowed down, and demand may be restored with policy support.

The recent panic shipments of spot traders have led to smooth destocking of aluminum social inventories. Low inventories at home and abroad have supported aluminum prices.

However, in the short term, domestic aluminum prices are greatly dragged down by macro pressures and the complex situation of China's warehouse events.

In the short term, it is recommended to take a wait-and-see approach.

Moreover, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity has once again entered the peak of starting production and resuming production.

Also, many aluminum  enterprises have started to resume production, with a total operating capacity of nearly 41 million tons, and the supply has continued to rise.

On the demand side, the improvement of the epidemic situation superimposed on favorable policy stimulus has enhanced the market's confidence in demand. 

But the real estate market is still in a relatively weak state, still dragging down the downstream consumer market.

It is NOT optimistiC because the overall market demand has not improved.

The pressure between the current weak reality and strong expectations still needs time to be gradually buffered and released, when the long-suppressed demand may usher in a high outbreak.

The preliminary investigation results of the vicious incident of repeated pledge of warehouse receipts have attracted much market attention.

And it has led to the purchase of a number of delivery warehouses by financiers, and the impact of capital hedging and spot selling risk is still fermenting.

Aluminum prices will oscillate and sort out on the 20,000 line, and continue to pay attention to the China's spot inventory.

In summary, it is expected that the aluminum will continue destocking in June, and there is some pressure on the supply.